Why is there so little innovation in cloud hardware?

With the explosion of data and the need to make sense out of it all on a smart phone is creating an interesting opportunity. Mobile devices need high performance at low power, and Apple seems to be the only one that has figured out that having your own processor team and IP is actually a key advantage. And the telcos will need Petascale data centers to manage content, knowledge management, and operational intelligence and the performance per Watt of general purpose CPUs from IBM, Intel, and AMD are at least two order of magnitude away from what is possible. So why is there so little innovation in cloud hardware?

The rule of thumb for creating a new chip venture is $50-75M. Clearly the model where your project is just an aggregation of third party IP blocks is not a very interesting investment as it would create no defendable position in the market place. So from a differentiation point of view early stage chip companies need to have some unique IP. And this IP needs to be substantial. This creates the people and tool cost that makes chip design expensive.

Secondly, to differentiate on performance, power, or space you have to be at least closer to the leading edge. When Intel is at 32nm, don’t pick 90nm as a feasible technology. So mask costs are measured in the millions for products that try to compete in high-value silicon.

Thirdly, it takes at least two product cycles to move the value chain. Dell doesn’t move until it can sell 100k units a month, and ISVs don’t move until there millions of units of installed base. So the source of the $50M-$75M needed for fabless semi is that creating new IP is a $20-25M problem if presented to the market as a chip and it takes two cycles to move the supply chain, and it takes three cycles to move the software.

The market dynamics of IT has created this situation. It used to be the case that the enterprise market drove silicon innovation. However, the enterprise market is now dragging the silicon investment market down. Enterprise hardware and software is no longer the driving force: the innovation is now driven by the consumer market. And that game is played and controlled by the high volume OEMs. Secondly, their cost constraints and margins make delivering IP to these OEMs very unattractive: they hold all the cards and attenuate pricing so that continued engineering innovation is hard to sustain for a startup. Secondly, an OEM is not interested in creating unique IP by a third party: it would deleverage them. So you end up getting only the non-differentiable pieces of technology and a race to the bottom.

Personally however, I believe that there is a third wave of silicon innovation brewing. When I calculate the efficiency that Intel gets out of a square millimeter of silicon and compare that to what is possible I see a thousand fold difference. So, there are tremendous innovation possibilities from an efficiency point of view alone. Combining it with the trend to put intelligence into every widget and connecting them wirelessly provides the application space where efficient silicon that delivers high performance per Watt can really shine AND have a large potential market. Mixed-signal and new processor architectures will be the differentiators and the capital markets will at one point recognize the tremendous opportunities present to create a next generation technology that creates these intelligent platforms.

Until then, us folks that are pushing the envelope will continue to refine our technologies so we can be ready when the capital market catches up with the opportunities.

Cloud Storage done right

I am a big fan of DropBox as it makes cloud storage as easy to use as a local folder. The additional features of version control, and P2P so that syncs between desktops and laptops are lightning fast are simple brilliantly executed: easy to use and worry free. However, at $200 a year for 100GByte it simply is too expensive for use as a real cloud storage/back up/access everywhere kinda solution. Desktops have been in the 1TB range for some time and thus a cloud solution that can't handle that is not properly designed. Instead, consumers and small businesses are better suited with the more cost effective external USB drives. $200 for 2TB is pretty standard so you can backup several machines on a single drive.

But last week TrendMicro release SafeSync. Their feature set is spot on, and their pricing is where cloud storage needs to be: unlimited storage for $60 per year, $30 right now for existing TrendMicro customers. That is much cheaper than an external drive, its covers all your machines, provides automatic backups, and synchronizes file sets if desired. This is the way cloud storage is supposed to work, and TrendMicro has been smart to realize that. I have been using the service for a couple of days, and I am loving it.